Note: This blog posting was written days before the 2008 election. And yes, we voted early! Below is my prediction for what happens on this very important election day, 2008.
Fearless Prediction
It was a lot closer than the polls stated in the run-up to the election, but ultimately Obama ended up winning the presidency. Not the blowout some folks expected, but ultimately McCain couldn't get Ohio or Pennsylvania in the win column, and that was the difference. With a 307 to 231 electoral vote advantage, it was Pennsylvania and Ohio going blue that made the difference. It sounds like a huge win, but in reality it was a squeaker.
New Hampshire and Missouri going to McCain was a real surprise, but Obama's wins in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada were huge. The idea that Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia were going to be targets for Obama ended up being a pipe dream. Florida, once again, was close, but ultimately it was McCain that won them over - in a surprise to many people.
African-Americans, unsurprisingly, busted records in turnout everywhere. What was really surprising, though, was the members of the Bush coalition that ended up voting for the McCain ticket when everyone counted them out. That allowed New Hampshire - who has never really stopped loving McCain - to stay red, Missouri to go red, and allowed McCain to close in a bunch of states that nobody thought he might be able to get.
Congratulations to Senator Obama - allowing Americans their first election-night's sleep since 1996. And congratulations to McCain - who fought hard, but ultimately lost due to the meltdown in Wall Street, not due to his campaign.
My prediction of how the electoral votes turn out:
Alabama (9): McCain
Alaska (3): McCain
Arizona (10): McCain
Arkansas (6): McCain
California (55): Obama
Colorado (9): Obama
Connecticut (7): Obama
Delaware (3): Obama
Florida (27): McCain
Georgia (15): McCain
Hawaii (4): Obama
Idaho (4): McCain
Illinois (21): Obama
Indiana (11): McCain
Iowa (7): Obama
Kansas (6): McCain
Kentucky (8): McCain
Louisiana (9): McCain
Maine (4): Obama
Maryland (10): Obama
Massachusetts (12): Obama
Michigan (17): Obama
Minnesota (10): Obama
Mississippi (6): McCain
Missouri (11): McCain
Montana (3): McCain
Nebraska (5): McCain
Nevada (5): Obama
New Hampshire (4): McCain
New Jersey (15): Obama
New Mexico (5): Obama
New York (31): Obama
North Carolina (15): McCain
North Dakota (3): McCain
Ohio (20): Obama
Oklahoma (7): McCain
Oregon (7): Obama
Pennsylvania (21): Obama
Rhode Island (4): Obama
South Carolina (8): McCain
South Dakota (3): McCain
Tennessee (11): McCain
Texas (34): McCain
Utah (5): McCain
Vermont (3): Obama
Virginia (13): Obama
Washington (11): Obama
Washington DC (3): Obama
West Virginia (5): McCain
Wisconsin (10): Obama
Wyoming (3): McCain
Fearless Prediction
It was a lot closer than the polls stated in the run-up to the election, but ultimately Obama ended up winning the presidency. Not the blowout some folks expected, but ultimately McCain couldn't get Ohio or Pennsylvania in the win column, and that was the difference. With a 307 to 231 electoral vote advantage, it was Pennsylvania and Ohio going blue that made the difference. It sounds like a huge win, but in reality it was a squeaker.
New Hampshire and Missouri going to McCain was a real surprise, but Obama's wins in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada were huge. The idea that Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia were going to be targets for Obama ended up being a pipe dream. Florida, once again, was close, but ultimately it was McCain that won them over - in a surprise to many people.
African-Americans, unsurprisingly, busted records in turnout everywhere. What was really surprising, though, was the members of the Bush coalition that ended up voting for the McCain ticket when everyone counted them out. That allowed New Hampshire - who has never really stopped loving McCain - to stay red, Missouri to go red, and allowed McCain to close in a bunch of states that nobody thought he might be able to get.
Congratulations to Senator Obama - allowing Americans their first election-night's sleep since 1996. And congratulations to McCain - who fought hard, but ultimately lost due to the meltdown in Wall Street, not due to his campaign.
My prediction of how the electoral votes turn out:
Alabama (9): McCain
Alaska (3): McCain
Arizona (10): McCain
Arkansas (6): McCain
California (55): Obama
Colorado (9): Obama
Connecticut (7): Obama
Delaware (3): Obama
Florida (27): McCain
Georgia (15): McCain
Hawaii (4): Obama
Idaho (4): McCain
Illinois (21): Obama
Indiana (11): McCain
Iowa (7): Obama
Kansas (6): McCain
Kentucky (8): McCain
Louisiana (9): McCain
Maine (4): Obama
Maryland (10): Obama
Massachusetts (12): Obama
Michigan (17): Obama
Minnesota (10): Obama
Mississippi (6): McCain
Missouri (11): McCain
Montana (3): McCain
Nebraska (5): McCain
Nevada (5): Obama
New Hampshire (4): McCain
New Jersey (15): Obama
New Mexico (5): Obama
New York (31): Obama
North Carolina (15): McCain
North Dakota (3): McCain
Ohio (20): Obama
Oklahoma (7): McCain
Oregon (7): Obama
Pennsylvania (21): Obama
Rhode Island (4): Obama
South Carolina (8): McCain
South Dakota (3): McCain
Tennessee (11): McCain
Texas (34): McCain
Utah (5): McCain
Vermont (3): Obama
Virginia (13): Obama
Washington (11): Obama
Washington DC (3): Obama
West Virginia (5): McCain
Wisconsin (10): Obama
Wyoming (3): McCain
Comments
Wow, what asinine logic.
Most of us have had it up to here with this nasty political process crammed down our throats for the past year.