Skip to main content

Patsy Ratings: Georgetown's Class of 2017

(Photo Credit: Washington Post)

The term is "Hoya Paranoia", and back in the 1980s it meant the hoops legend of John Thompson, Patrick Ewing and the golden era of Hoya basketball.  There's even a blog dedicated to those teams in that time frame.

To Hoya football fans, though, the term Hoya Paranoia has meant something much different.

To them, head coach Kevin Kelly has been fighting a losing battle in the Patriot League, despite being one game away from the title in two of the last three years.  They say that the new reality that has football scholarships in the Patriot League is bad, bad news for the Hoyas, and that the inevitable decline of the program is right around the corner as a result.

In this reporter's opinion, in past seasons, the argument hasn't held water.  The past three seasons have seen the Hoyas come dastardly close to knocking off the Mountain Hawks, and they've beaten every

other team in the Patriot League at least once.

But this season - with the new realities of Patriot League football scholarships - are they right?

These Patsy Ratings certainly won't be the ultimate answer to the question - taking these "for entertainment purposes only" ratings and determining that would be folly.  (Take it from The Committee, who knows exactly how these things are calculated.)

But considering it's all we've got, below the flip, here is Georgetown's Patsy Rating for 2013.

Georgetown's recruiting class is announced the latest of all the Patriot League schools, thanks to their policy of waiting for the deposit check to clear before announcing the Hoya incoming class.  That's why most of the rest of the league announced their incoming classes back in February.  In any case, here we are, with the final installment of the Patsy ratings for 2013.

THE GOOD
If I were writing the release, I'd say something along the lines of the following.  "A wide-ranging class has attracted a bevy of different players from across the country, from California to Massachusetts.  In addition, several athletes from football hotbeds like Florida and Texas are a part of this year's incoming class." 

There is that.

THE BAD
Anyone who has taken a look at the Patsy Ratings over the years knows there are two prongs to the Rating over the years.

Essentially, there are two ways to get high ratings: to have amazing quality/ratings numbers, and little focus so much on class size and depth (or, as the Committee calls it, "target practice"), or to have giant class size numbers and had some good quality wash up amongst its ranks (Committeespeak: "cast a wide net").

The Hoyas did not engage in "target practice" - perhaps the decision on football scholarships had something to do with that -and while they did "cast a wide net", the net was not as wide, nor did it wash up enough incredible quality athletes, to get a big Patsy rating.  In other words - uh, oh.

This is where the Committee inserts its usual disclaimer that a low Patsy point rating does not mean that a particular member of the class is bad, or the class will yield no all-League players, or even no superstars or future NFL players.  The Patsies are notoriously bad at predicting specifics -they are what they are. But the ratings are not saying nice things about the overall makeup of this class.

QUALITY = 7. Case in point, the ratings show only 7 of 23 recruits existed in the eyes of the recruiting services, or just 30% of the overall group.  But all of these were of the "fog a mirror" variety, meaning that they were listed by the scouting services but did not have star ratings.

Think about this a moment: Colgate's quality rating alone was a 32 - more than four times the Hoya's rating. Granted, Colgate's class this season was one for the ages, Patsy point-wise.  But it shows what Georgetown is dealing with here.

CLASS SIZE = 4.  23 Recruits, which in this new era of the Patriot League offering scholarships is a larger number than most schools.  While we're on the subject of Colgate, this Hoya Paranoia class is eight bodies bigger than Colgate's incoming class.  It's four more class size points than the Mean Red Machine, but it falls way short of the 25 point deficit with the Maroons in terms of quality points.

Remember: "target practice" vs. "wide net".  

DISTRIBUTION = 8.  While this is indeed the maximum number awarded by the Patsy Points, and the Hoyas did indeed cover all their bases, what is odd is that they covered all the bases just barely.

With a 23 member class, usually distribution points cover all the bases with ease - which makes sense, since the more announced bodies, the more chances that a different position is called.

But only one defensive back shows up on the incoming class list, and only one running back. (Unhelpfully, one service lists this athlete as an inside linebacker as his listed position, but the Hoyas list him as a running back.)

I would have expected more bodies announced at both positions - and, in particular, defensive back, which will be more fully explained later.

SPEED = 3. With the general disclaimer that accurate information is hard to come by in this instance, two athletes did indeed provide speed information that provided some critical Patsy points.

TRIGGER = 0.  3 QBs, but none of them were rated.  One wasn't rated by any service, which is unusual.  As Patsy Point veterans (and Lafayette fans) will tell you, QBs are the gift that keeps on giving.  Had just one of these players been ranked, it could have had a dramatic point swing for the Hoyas.  But they were not, so they didn't.

JUMBO = 2.  3 OL and 2 DL.  Of the five recruits, only two reach the "jumbo" threshold that gives them credit in the class - one hitting about the 270 lb threshold on offense, and one hitting above the 250 lb threshold on defense.  While some might argue "size isn't everything", it is to the Jumbo rating, and thus only two points for the Hoyas.

Here, too, is one of the big benefits, in most years, of having a large class size.  In most years, with a class size of 25-30 kids, how many are trench guys?  6?  7?  More?  Of that number, how many are jumbo's?  Probably quite a few - and the more jumbo linemen you have, the more the Patsy points pile up.

That Kelly only nabbed two Jumbo lineman was a huge deficit in their "big net" strategy, at least Patsy point-wise.  Even a handful more "Jumbos" would have helped on many fronts.  (On an unrelated Patsy point note, none of the five linemen were recognized by the scouting services.)

NEEDS = 5 (of 12):
LB = 3 (of 5).  Is the Committee being unduly generous here?  Perhaps.  Though there is obvious need at inside linebacker with the graduation of a guy who's going to be in an NFL Camp this summer, LB Robert McCabe, only two players were recruited for this position, including one that fogged the mirror.  However, if you include their solitary RB in that position, listed in one recruiting service as an ILB, suddenly it's three players, with two of them at least acknowledged by the services.  The Committee, in a split decision, decided there was enough there to give them an extra needs point.  (To be fair, the Committee made sure that their more curmudgeonly members were away at Stuckey's when the vote took place.)

DB = 0 (of 4).  The Committee freely admits that despite the Hoyas losing one of their (other) best defensive players last season to graduation, CB Jeremy Moore, it doesn't necessarily follow that they need to replace him with multiple bodies in the defensive backfield.  Even so, however, one DB, unranked and unrecognized, ain't going to cut it anywhere.  That's like casting the wide net and getting one herring in return.

WR = 2 (of 3).  A classic case where depth (4 WRs) and just enough quality (2 fogged a mirror with the recruiting services) gave the Hoyas an extra point that they perhaps did not earn.

COMMITTEE ADJUSTMENT: 0.  It's no secret this year that the Committee has been, perhaps, a bit less grouchy than in past years.  Still, though, they need to see something to justify the bonus points.  Multiple offers from other schools.  Some FBS interest.  Something that appears to show that, perhaps, the class, or individuals, are more than what has been written.

But the Committee didn't find anything.  Believe me, they looked.  They looked for missing Jumbo points.  Speed points.  Offers.  "Interest".  But there simply wasn't enough to justify the extra points.

GEORGETOWN - 29

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Fifteen Guys Who Might be Lehigh's Next Football Coach (and Five More)

If you've been following my Twitter account, you might have caught some "possibilities" as Lehigh's next head football coach like Lou Holtz, Brett Favre and Bo Pelini.  The chance that any of those three guys actually are offered and accept the Lehigh head coaching position are somewhere between zero and zero.  (The full list of my Twitter "possibilities" are all on this thread on the Lehigh Sports Forum.)

However the actual Lehigh head football coaching search is well underway, with real names and real possibilities.

I've come up with a list of fifteen possible names, some which I've heard whispered as candidates, others which might be good fits at Lehigh for a variety of reasons.

UPDATE: I have found five more names of possible head coaches that I am adding to this list below.

Who are the twenty people?  Here they are, in alphabetical order.

Remembering Andy Coen's Time As Head Coach As He Steps Down as Lehigh Football Head Coach To Address Health Issue

I read the announcement that head coach Andy Coen was stepping down as head football coach late Friday evening.

It was an announcement that I was expecting, to some degree. 

Those of use who have been following the program closely knew that something was amiss with Andy. 

And yet, the reason for him needing to step down was devastating.

"Life has thrown me a curveball," Coen said in the press release on Friday, December 7th, 2018. "I am in the early stages [of early onset Alzheimer's disease] and it is best for me to eliminate stress and concentrate on my health and well-being.  My wife, Laura, and my children, Molly, Nolan and Finn have supported me throughout my career and are my biggest fans.  This is a very difficult decision for all of us, but it is what is best at this time."

It was the gutting, pit-in-the-stomach diagnosis nobody wanted to be true.  Just like that, a bigger challenge than simply winning football games faces the man who has been heading …

How To Get Lehigh Fans To Games, And Keep Them There?

You don't have to have attended more than twenty-five years of Lehigh football games to know it's a completely different world out there for your friendly neighborhood sports fan.

When Lehigh's Murray Goodman Stadium was opened in 1988, there were only about a dozen channels on the small, eighteen inch black and white TV we had in our dorm room.  Only two channels might have had "major college football" games on at the same time a Lehigh football game was being played live over the mountain.  (Notre Dame, the only school who had all their games televised, almost always played their games at 3:30 PM.)

Nowadays there's way more entertainment options on a typical college weekend than ever, and it's very logical to think that the increased amount of competition might not just keep students away from attending football games, but local fans as well.

It's not an issue confined to Lehigh - in 2014, home attendance at all FBS games dropped to their lowest le…